Following a two-week recess, National Assembly members are set to return to work in Abuja, with President Bola Tinubu’s tax reform bills taking center stage.
The four tax bills are currently under review by the National Assembly, but discussions around them seem to highlight a divide between lawmakers from the North and the South.
The four bills—Nigeria Tax Bill 2024, Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill, and Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill—are currently under consideration in both chambers of the National Assembly.
Over the weekend, Rabiu Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) presidential candidate, sparked controversy by labeling the tax bills as a scheme by Lagos State to dominate Kano’s tax revenues. He urged lawmakers from Kano to “stay vigilant.”
Kwankwaso is the latest northern politician to voice concerns over the proposed legislation.
It is worth noting that the Northern Governors’ Forum had directed their lawmakers to oppose the proposed tax bills.
The controversy surrounding the bills centers on the proposed sharing formula for Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue. The suggestion to allocate 60 percent of VAT revenue based on the derivation principle has become a major point of contention.
Some northern governors contend that the proposed arrangement would disproportionately benefit Lagos State, which houses the headquarters of numerous companies.
Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the presidential committee, has repeatedly dismissed this claim, arguing that the bills are designed to benefit northern states more. In an interview, he even stated that Lagos State would be the most impacted by the reforms.
Despite his assurances, reporters has learned that many lawmakers remain skeptical.
On Monday, Mr. Oyedele appeared before the House to further clarify the implications of the proposed tax bills to lawmakers.
This report by reporter examines the regional composition of the Senate and House of Representatives to assess the strength of each region.
While voice votes are commonly used to make decisions, the Senate in the last Assembly resorted to voting to resolve a controversial provision in the Electoral Bill.
The Senate
In the Senate, passing the tax bills requires at least 55 votes if all 109 senators are present. However, the quorum for the Senate to conduct business is 37 members.
A breakdown of the Senate reveals that the North holds 57 seats, including one from the FCT, while the South has 51 seats.
- North-West: 21 senators
- North-East: 18 senators
- North-Central: 18 senators
- South-West: 18 senators
- South-South: 18 senators
- South-East: 15 senators
The analysis highlights that the North has a numerical advantage. However, the region is not monolithic; states in the North-Central, such as Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau, may vote differently from the North-East and North-West, often referred to as the core North.
The five North-Central states collectively account for 15 senators. If these are excluded from the North’s tally, the region is left with 43 senators.
Similarly, the South is not unified. Reporterreports that some southern states, especially oil-producing ones, might support the bills.
A coalition of a united southern bloc and the North-Central could provide the votes needed for the bills to pass in the Senate.
Meanwhile, Senator Ali Ndume has been outspoken against the bills, recently declaring that they would be “dead on arrival.”
The question remains: Does Mr. Ndume have enough supporters to defeat the bills?
The House
There has been more vocal support for the bills in the House. Last week, Abdulmumin Jibrin, a member of the NNPP from Kano State, stated that northern lawmakers would back the bills because they align with the region’s interests.
However, it is uncertain whether he will continue to hold this stance now that Mr. Kwankwaso, the political leader of the NNPP, has spoken out.
Meanwhile, Philip Agbese, the deputy spokesperson of the House, has been a strong advocate for the bills. In a recent statement, he emphasized that lawmakers would back the bills and reject any attempts by governors to sway them.
“As far as we are concerned in the House of Representatives, no one can stop us from supporting President Bola Tinubu in revitalizing the economy for the benefit of the country.
“We are united across party lines to ensure the country functions properly, and this is the stance of Speaker Tajudeen Abbas.
“Some governors have been threatening members from their states, even going so far as to warn that they will block their re-election bids in 2027 if they support the bills,” he said.
If all 360 members are present, 181 votes are needed to pass a bill.
However, the outcome of the bills will likely depend on the most influential voices in the House, making it ultimately a matter of numbers.
Breakdown of the lawmakers by region:
The North holds the majority in the House with 190 seats:
- North-West: 91 seats
- North-East: 48 seats
- North-Central: 51 seats
The South has a total of 170 seats, distributed as follows:
South-West: 71 seats
South-South: 55 seats
South-East: 44 seats
As in the Senate, it’s unlikely that the entire region will vote uniformly.
For example, in the North-Central, many lawmakers tend to disagree with the core North. If the North-Central’s votes are excluded, the North is left with 139 votes.
The South, with 170 votes, is 20 votes short of the North’s total.
